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Prediction for CME (2024-01-22T10:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-01-22T10:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/28689/-1
CME Note: [PRELIMINARY] Wide CME with distinctive bright core (likely h-alpha emission) seen to the S/SE in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and after a data gap in STEREO A COR2 imagery. This CME is associated with a large filament eruption stretching from ~S45E10 to ~S20W20, centered around S35W10. The source eruption is best seen in SDO/AIA 304 starting around 2024-01-22T08:30Z. Associated dimming (SDO/AIA 193), brightening (SDO/AIA 304), and post-eruptive arcades (SDO/AIA 193, 171, and 211) are visible. The filament appears to deflect southward as it erupts. Possible arrival signature: a change in the solar wind pattern, with B total sharply increasing from under 3 nT to over 6nT, followed by another jump to just above 10nT around 14Z. There is also rotation of two magnetic field components, that after 14Z potentially resembles signature of a glancing blow/arrival of a flux rope.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-01-25T05:35Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-01-25T00:58Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note: 
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-01-22 15:27
 - Time at C2: 2024-01-22 10:48
 - Radial speed: 746.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 42 deg
 - Eruption location: S38W16
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 629.80 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2024-01-25 00:58 (i.e. predicted transit time: 62.18 hours)
Lead Time: 58.17 hour(s)
Difference: 4.62 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2024-01-22T19:25Z
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